Teach Talk Trade Day Trading & Technical Analysis

04-20-08  DOW Directions:  A Daily Technical Analytical View of Stocks, Futures, Eminis and Forex for online and day traders.

Weekly candlesticks and trend point to a rally in the SPY stock index.

As the trend changed to positive, the weekly candlestick pattern posted a bullish engulfing pattern.  This is always seen as a positive sign. Equally as postive is the trend turning up.  This positive turn in direction is hint of upside since last November.

The daily CMO, our momentum oscillator, turned up and could assault its upper boundaries over the next few weeks. once again. The important fact is that the CMO moving in a positive direction once again. This could result in another couple of weeks of rally.

The T8 (maroon line), our moving average that defines trend, changed direction last week. This new leg to the upside is significant.  We haven’t had a hint of upside trending since last November.  different story.  We expect price to retrace to the uptrending T8 and at that point we would love to buy this market.

Last week’s candlestick formation was a “bullish engulfing” pattern. The can be a very significant candlestick pattern. Bullish engulfing patterns are usually followed by strong market movement to the upside. 

***Volatility Alert:

During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices. For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility. This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points, sometimes on a day-to-day basis. Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time. Expect continued volatility. The current volatility cycle has just started its volatile period. We feel this is the early stages of volatility and we continue to believe it is here to stay.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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For a while I have been saying it is time to “Ride the Bull in Agriculture” since I believe the bull market in food and agriculture is a virtual “sure-thing” over the coming decade and beyond.

I noted the impact that bio-fuels will have on the supply and demand equation in agriculture.  I was not supporting ethanol as a viable replacement for fossil fuels.  I try not to make the mistake of underestimating the stupidity of a government boondoggle.

Consider the energy equation.  It takes roughly 1.3 units of energy to produce one unit of energy from ethanol.  This is like trying to get rich by buying dollar bills for $1.30.  But if we’re even having the discussion, it tells me that it’s not the solution it has been hyped to be.

Think what will happen when these cars are produced in large quantities with a fuel source dependent on Mother Nature from year to year?  Ask a farmer if he can expect a bumper crop year after year.
I don’t support ethanol as a viable alternative.  I was noting the impact it may have on the agriculture supply and demand equation.  And that equation is showing that the world is beginning to demand more food than we are able to produce … even if we weren’t burning it up to produce energy. You might have seen or read recently that United States wheat inventories are at 60-year lows.  Imagine that.  The “world’s breadbasket” may have to begin importing wheat (if it’s available, that is!).  This is partly due to the ethanol rush, and the battle between food and fuel.
 
With farmers chasing the free millions from the government in corn subsidies. And by the say, that is your money they are giving away. The farmers are planting less of other crops.  When you combine these forces with the increasingly growing middle class in the developing world that are demanding more protein (it takes lots of grain to feed animals, to raise meat), it has created a massive squeeze play in the agricultural commodities. When I wrote about this two months ago, I recommended the DBA ( PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund ), which provides equally weighted exposure to corn, soybeans, sugar, and wheat.  Not surprisingly, this ETF has been rip roaring, up almost 30% year to date.

If you want to play the long-term boom in agricultural commodities, I would still think about DBA.  You should consider buying on pullbacks since it has had a strong run.

Traders love to talk about their trading.

It’s much more comfortable for most traders to talk about what COULD BE rather than WHAT IS.

They love to talk about some chart setting up, their view of the political situation surrounding the stock or market…. whatever.

We all know that talk is cheap.

Intellectually, we know that the chart says everything we need to know, but as emotional beings, we are always looking for the “insight” or the “intuition” to put us a step ahead of everybody else who are all looking at the same charts we are.

If we don’t have the “eye to the future”, maybe a trading friend has it.

Sometimes all you have to do is call up a trading buddy and say, “Hi, how are you today?” What you’ll get in return will be, “Boy, have you seen the ’so-and-so’ chart today?

If that breaks the XY level, it’s going to really take off!” He continues, “And with that unstable political situation, this could really be a big trade.”

Why should we care?

We shouldn’t.

I guess we could take a look at the suggested chart and apply our trading parameters to it….. and if it passes scrutiny, well, that would be alright to trade, right? Yeah, OK.

You have to watch yourself, though. You see, you can have a tendency to want to MAKE a trade fit.

After hearing all about the great fundamentals, you can (subconsciously) view the chart with “I wanna buy” eyes, meaning that you can tell yourself that an almost-confirmation is close enough (with all those fundamentals going for it!).

That’s the danger.

It’s always best, I think, to come across a trade yourself. You see a price falling….. and falling….. gosh, when will it bottom? Your system says, “Don’t guess, be patient”.

Here’s one of my favorite expressions:

“I’d rather be out of a market (or stock) wishing I was in, than in a market wishing I was out.”

So, the market has a nice reversal day…. new low during the day with a higher close. Getting close to a buy, but not yet. The price goes higher for a few days and then starts to come back down.

It’s looking good.

The low holds, the market breaks the rally high and BOOM, we pull the trigger and we are in.

The system rules.

THAT’S the way to take a trade.

Every trader (you, included) has his or her own agenda. Only you know what works for you, system-wise and emotion-wise.

Trust in your tested trading system. It will serve you if you stick to it.

People think I’m crazy when they hear me talking to myself.

My close friends know that I’m just getting good trading advice!

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Energy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Our mission is to empower traders with timely information for improving stock and commodities portfolio results with technical analysis. How do we accomplish this, access, research and feedback.

It is well known that human emotions can interfere with making sound decisions when managing stock and commodity market commitments.  Teach Talk Trade has developed mechanical trading approaches designed to remove the emotional factor from your stock market decisions.  Online trading using technical analysis along with using Metastock is a key you your success.
Test drive our services for FREE.  Sign up for the 7 Day Free Trial.  You will get access to The Morning Call which is a 25 minute audio with over 40 charts.  We discuss Commodity Futures, ETF’s, E-mini’s and Equites.  Uncle Steve will layout the pre market conditions and discuss many of the charts with possible entry and exit points.

Most importantly, we offer an objective and consistent approach to trading. The information, contained at this site, can be used as a tool to increase your ability to manage short-term market volatility. These signals can supplement your existing research with powerful market-timing tools.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Energy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Trading Tips in this Volatile Market….

 No matter what the trading  environment that you are in, all good traders know that the key to staying in the  game is maintaining a good risk & money management strategy. While most traders will simply define risk management as “loss control”, there is really more to it. Risk management should be the constant modulation of risk exposure to a constantly changing market. What is this exactly?

Most traders will set their entire risk management strategy to setting and adhering to “stop losses.” But this falls far short of what risk management really is. Risk management strategy just using simple stop losses would be equivalent to saying “I am safe in my car because I have brakes.” Needless to say, the “brakes” are only part of an entire system of managing risk in a constantly moving environment such as street traffic. The markets are similar to the streets. There are far more actions we can take to minimize risk besides the brakes: there is steering, controlling the throttle, the path you take, “your trip preparation,” mapping your route, the times you drive, the amount of driving you do, not driving while “under the influence,” there are so many factors that affect risk levels, that we cannot possibly reduce the entire risk control strategy down to “brakes,” or in the case of trading, “stop losses.”

How we make and lose money is the end result of our interaction with the market. If we do not interact, we neither win nor lose. If we interact too much or too little, we assume higher levels of risk. Risk management should be the constant “adjustment” of our risk exposure based on market conditions and our very own performance.

How can you modulate your risk exposure? There are 3 primary ways:

* SIZE: How large or small our positions are, based on our account values. The more we expose our account, the “larger” the exposure.
* FREQUENCY: How often we are in-and-out of the market. The more frequent we trade, the more we are exposed to the markets motions over time, the more risk we assume. Also, commission costs become a factor that significantly affects risk levels as we increase frequency.

* DURATION: The longer we are in each trade, the more opportunity the market has to travel, the higher our risks will be.

To properly modulate your risk you have to assess and adjust all three areas of exposure - size, frequency and duration. As you increase one, you must compensate by lowering another.

The biggest single error most traders commit is to place too much of an emphasis on one area of risk exposure while ignoring the other areas. In the end, by ignoring some of the other exposure areas, a trader is left watching his trading account dwindle in size as the losses mount.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Energy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 8: 30-Year Bond)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 8 features a chart of the continous 30-year Bond contract, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of 30-year Bond is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the third week of September at 110.375 and then again, the third week in December at 114.156.  At the time of this writing, the US 30-year Bond  was trading at 118.34. These two opportunities have turned out to be big winners since the first signal in September. The Bond is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next few weeks, we sill see over a dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 7: Gold)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 7 features a chart of the continous Gold contract, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of Yen is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 08/04/07 @ 659.50 and 08/25/07 @ 667.00 and again on 12/08/07 @ 789.40.  At the time of this writing, Gold was trading at 910.50. These three opportunities have turned out to be big winners since the first signal in August. Gold is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 5)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 5 features a chart of Coffee using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend in Coffee is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 1/08/08 @ 130.60 and Tuesday morning’s opening (1/22/08) @ 130.20. At the time of this writing, Coffee was trading at 134.25. These two opportunities are enjoying nice profits at the current level. Coffee is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 4)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 4 features a chart of the Emini Japanese Yen (an electronic contract) using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of Yen is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 10/13/07 @ .86100 and 12/22/075 @ .88480.  At the time of this writing, the Yen was trading at .93990. These two opportunities have turned out to be big winners in the last few weeks.  The Yen is not unique to this situation.  Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Repay Loans????

When a loan isn’t repaid and is only followed with another, larger loan… it’s not really lending, is it? Besides, even your grandchildren would be able to calculate this rate of interest (3.95%) is less than the present, official rate of inflation and far less than any bank could borrow money with in the markets today – that is, if they could borrow at all. Don’t you wish there were an entire federal agency dedicated to erasing all the mistakes you’ve made as an investor with collateral-free, below-market-interest-rate loans, which need not ever be repaid?

 How long can this game continue? We don’t have a crystal ball, We only know as long as the Fed continues to pump huge amounts of money into the banking system at interest rates far below the market rate, buying hard commodities – especially gold – is very likely to be a great bet.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.