Teach Talk Trade Day Trading & Technical Analysis

For a while I have been saying it is time to “Ride the Bull in Agriculture” since I believe the bull market in food and agriculture is a virtual “sure-thing” over the coming decade and beyond.

I noted the impact that bio-fuels will have on the supply and demand equation in agriculture.  I was not supporting ethanol as a viable replacement for fossil fuels.  I try not to make the mistake of underestimating the stupidity of a government boondoggle.

Consider the energy equation.  It takes roughly 1.3 units of energy to produce one unit of energy from ethanol.  This is like trying to get rich by buying dollar bills for $1.30.  But if we’re even having the discussion, it tells me that it’s not the solution it has been hyped to be.

Think what will happen when these cars are produced in large quantities with a fuel source dependent on Mother Nature from year to year?  Ask a farmer if he can expect a bumper crop year after year.
I don’t support ethanol as a viable alternative.  I was noting the impact it may have on the agriculture supply and demand equation.  And that equation is showing that the world is beginning to demand more food than we are able to produce … even if we weren’t burning it up to produce energy. You might have seen or read recently that United States wheat inventories are at 60-year lows.  Imagine that.  The “world’s breadbasket” may have to begin importing wheat (if it’s available, that is!).  This is partly due to the ethanol rush, and the battle between food and fuel.
 
With farmers chasing the free millions from the government in corn subsidies. And by the say, that is your money they are giving away. The farmers are planting less of other crops.  When you combine these forces with the increasingly growing middle class in the developing world that are demanding more protein (it takes lots of grain to feed animals, to raise meat), it has created a massive squeeze play in the agricultural commodities. When I wrote about this two months ago, I recommended the DBA ( PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund ), which provides equally weighted exposure to corn, soybeans, sugar, and wheat.  Not surprisingly, this ETF has been rip roaring, up almost 30% year to date.

If you want to play the long-term boom in agricultural commodities, I would still think about DBA.  You should consider buying on pullbacks since it has had a strong run.

Our mission is to empower traders with timely information for improving stock and commodities portfolio results with technical analysis. How do we accomplish this, access, research and feedback.

It is well known that human emotions can interfere with making sound decisions when managing stock and commodity market commitments.  Teach Talk Trade has developed mechanical trading approaches designed to remove the emotional factor from your stock market decisions.  Online trading using technical analysis along with using Metastock is a key you your success.
Test drive our services for FREE.  Sign up for the 7 Day Free Trial.  You will get access to The Morning Call which is a 25 minute audio with over 40 charts.  We discuss Commodity Futures, ETF’s, E-mini’s and Equites.  Uncle Steve will layout the pre market conditions and discuss many of the charts with possible entry and exit points.

Most importantly, we offer an objective and consistent approach to trading. The information, contained at this site, can be used as a tool to increase your ability to manage short-term market volatility. These signals can supplement your existing research with powerful market-timing tools.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Energy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 8: 30-Year Bond)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 8 features a chart of the continous 30-year Bond contract, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of 30-year Bond is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the third week of September at 110.375 and then again, the third week in December at 114.156.  At the time of this writing, the US 30-year Bond  was trading at 118.34. These two opportunities have turned out to be big winners since the first signal in September. The Bond is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next few weeks, we sill see over a dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Monday, 28-Jan-2008

Wednesday, 30-Jan-2008

Thursday, 31-Jan-2008

Friday, 01-Feb-2008

Mechanical Trading Systems and You, Trade your Plan

Traders love to talk about their trading. The love to talk about what could be than rather what is.Intellectually, we know that the chart says everything we need to know, but as emotional beings, we are always looking for the “insight” or the “intuition” to put us a step ahead of everybody else who are all looking at the same charts we are.

Sometimes all you have to do is call up a trading buddy and say, “Hi, how are you today?” What you’ll get in return will be, “Boy, have you seen the ’so-and-so’ chart today?If that breaks the XY level, it’s going to really take off!” He continues, “And with that unstable political situation, this could really be a big trade.” Why should you care? You shouldn’t.

I guess we could take a look at the suggested chart and apply our trading parameters to it….. and if it passes scrutiny, well, that would be alright to trade, right? Yeah, OK.You have to watch yourself, though. You see, you can have a tendency to want to MAKE a trade fit.After hearing all about the great fundamentals, you can (subconsciously) view the chart with “I wanna buy” eyes, meaning that you can tell yourself that an almost-confirmation is close enough (with all those fundamentals going for it!).

That’s the danger.It’s always best, I think, to come across a trade yourself. You see a price falling….. and falling…..

gosh, when will it bottom? Your system says, “Don’t guess, be patient”. So, the market has a nice reversal day…. new low during the day with a higher close. Getting close to a buy, but not yet. The price goes higher for a few days and then starts to come back down.It’s looking good. The low holds, the market breaks the rally high and BOOM, we pull the trigger and we are in.

The system rules. THAT’S the way to take a trade.Every trader (you, included) has his or her own agenda. Only you know what works for you, system-wise and emotion-wise. Trust in your tested trading system. It will serve you if you stick to it.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to title=”The Morning Call”>The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & title=”Mechanical Monkey”>The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.
 

T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 4)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 4 features a chart of the Emini Japanese Yen (an electronic contract) using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of Yen is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 10/13/07 @ .86100 and 12/22/075 @ .88480.  At the time of this writing, the Yen was trading at .93990. These two opportunities have turned out to be big winners in the last few weeks.  The Yen is not unique to this situation.  Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

The Blame Game–

“I have an friend. He’s an investor. He manages not only his own rather, but also those of some of his family, a responsibility which he takes very seriously. We share investment ideas, and some of the ideas he uses come from my recommendations, in The Morning Call and the Mechanical Monkey, among other sources. All in the family, right? Sometimes, one of those investment ideas goes south, and I feel compelled to send off an apology to my friend. Invariably, he responds in this manner – ‘Hey, don’t worry! I went into that one with my head up, did my own research and made my own choice. That makes it my responsibility, not yours…

‘ In this ‘victim society’ of ours, blaming someone else for our own mistakes teaches us! absolutely nothing. It’s a matter of personal choice and individual responsibility. Your recommendations offer value to me for one simple reason. They narrow the fields of my own research. I am not a professional, and I do not have enough time in a day to start from scratch. Your recommendations point me down roads which otherwise might not have been taken, and for that you have my gratitude. For what happens thereafter, or does not, I will take personal responsibility.”
Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 3)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 3 features a chart of the US Dollar, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8 (the maroon, thick line on the chart). As we can see, the trend of the dollar is down. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, in a downtrending market rule #1 states: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to sell weeks that open above the T8 when it is in an downtrend (and buy weekly openings that are below the T8), providing the T8 is positive. Rule #2: Sell opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of a downtrending T8. That’s it. A simple approach to extracting profits from some high-stepping futures contracts. 

Using this strategy, you could have sold the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 1/13/08: 84.43; 3/17/08: 84.22; 6/02/08: 82.30 and 8/25/08: 81.27; 12/15/08: 76.29. The most recent quote in the dollar is 75.66. Each whole number in the dollar is worth a thousand dollars.  Adding up the various opening week opportunities, we have a sum of 30.21, based on a close of 75.66.  30k is a nice profit in a single futures contract (one year to obtain…following the above scenario).

With this set up, traders are not forced to make swift decisions. If the market opens below a positive T8, in the weekly charts, traders have all week to position themselves at a better price (providing price cooperates). Multiple time frames are preached by many outstanding technicians. We are also big believers in examining weekly time frames and letting the larger time period dictate the direction of our trades. Once the weekly charts create a buying opportunity we can then drill down to daily time frames and try to catch a reasonable retracement to position ourselves long.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 2)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 2 features a chart of Cocoa, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of cocoa is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it.  Sometimes, the simple approaches outshine the complicated paths to profits.

 Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 2/03/08: $1566; 5/05/08: $1782; 6/09/08: $1873 and 10/13/08: $1812. This week, cocoa has appreciated to $2175.  It’s easy to calculate the profits in these positions.  It’s even easier to trade this approach.  With this set up, traders are not forced to make swift decisions.  If the market opens below a positive T8, in the weekly charts, traders have all week to position themselves at a better price (providing price cooperates).  Multiple time frames are preached by many outstanding technicians.  We are also big believers in examining weekly time frames and letting the larger time period dictate the direction of our trades.  Once the weekly charts create a buying opportunity we can then drill down to daily time frames and try to catch a reasonable retracement to position ourselves long. 

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

T8 Retracement Trading:  A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 1)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8.  In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future.   All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator.  As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

 Part 1 features a chart of Crude Oil, using weekly time frames.  We define “trend” as the direction of the T8.  As we can see, the trend of crude oil is definitely up.  Our rules are simple.  We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend.  Therefore, rule #1:  Initiate trades in the direction of the trend.  Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell  weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative.  Rule #2:  Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend.  That’s it.  Is it too simple for intelligent traders to implement?  Could be!  Isn’t a complicated approach better?  Well, at least I don’t think so. 

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated:  2/24/08: $57.25; 5/12/08: $61.67; 8/18/08: $71.57 and 12/8/08: $88.28.  The price of crude oil hit $100/barrel a few days ago.  There are many investment strategies to take advantage of this type of movement.  Most importantly, we have simple rules that can time us in at an unemotional time.  We simply follow the rules. 

 During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up.  THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK.  These specific circumstances happen again and again.  We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.   

  Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.