Teach Talk Trade Day Trading & Technical Analysis

DOW Directions 03-25-08 (Tuesday): A Daily Technical Analytical View of Stocks, Futures, Eminis and Forex for online and day traders.

DIA (Dow ETF): Daily trends turning up, weekly trends continue “weakly”.

Monday’s market continued its positive push and ended up +187.32.  Usually, a turn in the daily trend is sign of positive prices in the near future.  We need to excercize caution as the daily trend turns.  The weekly trends are still very negative.  If the daily prices continue to push higher, eventually the weekly trend will change to positive.  The market needs a very positive week to accomplish this task.

The daily StoRSI, our momentum oscillator, turned up once again.  This is the fifth directional change in the StoRSI in the past two weeks.   The current level puts momentum near its upper trigger level and we should expect it to traverse above the red line, upper trigger level, as it starts to encounter resistance.   

The T8 (maroon line), our moving average that defines trend, has changed direction and is now pointing up. This could be the beginning of a new leg to the upside.  The only negative technical news is that the weekly T8 is still in a horrid tailspin.  The weekly chart still is very very negative and could choke back any real potential on the upside.

Mondday’s candlestick was not a significant candle.

***Volatility Alert:

During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices. For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility. This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points, sometimes on a day-to-day basis. Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time. Expect continued volatility. The current volatility cycle has just started its volatile period. We feel this is the early stages of volatility and we continue to believe it is here to stay.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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DIA (Dow ETF): Directionless market continues volatile chop.

The market continues to to be volatile and it continues to trade in a narrow trading range. This is hard to believe when we see 200 point days swinging back and forth.  The market closed up +189.20, posting another volatile day within the range of the last four weeks.

The daily StoRSI, our momentum oscillator, has turned up once again. Typically, the StoRSI draws large sine curves that trace from top to bottom of its range.  Recently, the market has caused the StoRSI to consolidate in the middle of its range.  This seldom happens.  With the turn up in the momentum oscillator, the odds favor a little push to the upside.

The T8, our moving average that defines trend, has turned flat during the last two weeks. Without a strong angle pointing up or down… identifying a trend a very tricky proposition. During the last week and a half the trend has gone from down to up to down and up once again. This choppiness in direction has caused the the indicators to go flat. Make no mistake about it: even though the market is chopping back and forth, this choppiness is very volatile.

Monday’s candlestick was a insignificant candle posting. 

 ***Volatility Alert:

During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices. For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility. This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points, sometimes on a day-to-day basis. Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time. Expect continued volatility. The current volatility cycle has just started its volatile period. We feel this is the early stages of volatility and we continue to believe it is here to stay.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

 DIA: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (482)

Monday, December 10, 2007                            

10:00 AM ET. Oct Pending Home Sales Index (previous +0.2%)

Tuesday, December 11, 2007                           

7:45 AM ET. Dec 8 ICSC-UBS Chain Store Sales (previous +2.0%)

8:55 AM ET. Dec 8 Redbook Retail Sales Index (previous +0.3%)

10:00 AM ET. Oct Wholesale Trade Inventories (expected +0.6%; previous +0.8%)

5:00 PM ET. Dec 9 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous b24)

N/A Dec FOMC meeting; interest rate decision expected around 2:15 p.m. EST

Wednesday, December 12, 2007                         

7:00 AM ET. Dec 7 MBA Mortgage Application Survey Refinancing Index (previous +31.9%)

8:30 AM ET. Oct Trade Balance, in dollars Deficit (expected -57.5B; previous -56.45B)

8:30 AM ET. Nov Import Prices

                      Import Prices (expected +2.4%; previous +1.8%)

10:30 AM ET. Dec 7 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

                      Crude Oil Stocks (in barrels) (previous -7.9M)

                      Gasoline Stocks (in barrels) (previous +4M)

                      Distillate Stocks (in barrels) (previous +1.4M)

2:00 PM ET. Nov Federal Budget, in dollars

                     Budget, on year (expected -83.6B; previous -55.6B)

Thursday, December 13, 2007                          

8:30 AM ET. Nov PPI

                      PPI (expected +1.5%; previous +0.1%)

                      PPI Core (expected +0.2%; previous 0%)

8:30 AM ET. Nov Retail & Food Sales

                      Overall Sales (expected +0.6%; previous +0.2%)

                      Sales, Ex-Auto (expected +0.7%; previous +0.2%)

8:30 AM ET. Dec 8 Jobless Claims

                      Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 335K; previous 338K)

                      Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -3K; previous -15K)

                      Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 2,599,000)

                      Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous -59K)

10:00 AM ET. Dec 1 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous 0%)

10:00 AM ET. Oct Business Inventories

                      Total Inventories (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

10:30 AM ET. Dec 1 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Inventory

                      Natural Gas Stocks (in billion cubic feet) (previous b88)

Friday, December 14, 2007                            

8:30 AM ET. Nov CPI

                      CPI (expected +0.6%; previous +0.3%)

                      CPI Core (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

9:15 AM ET. Nov Industrial Production

                      Industrial Production (expected +0.2%; previous -0.5%)

                      Capacity Utilization (expected 81.75; previous 81.7)

Futures 11-28-07 (Wednesday):  A Daily Technical Analytical View of Commodity Futures for online and day traders.

March Copper (HGH):  Copper continues its 90-point slide.

March Copper closed down -7.75 on Tuesday and allowed traders the ability to short this market at the T8.  Price smacked the T8 and moved down after the contact on both Monday and Tuesday.   We always see retracements to the T8 as opportunities to buy or sell.  Wednesday should offer an opportunity to sell against the T8.  The StoRSI, our momentum oscillator has come straight down over the last two sessions its approaching the oversold trigger area.

The direction of the T8, our exponential moving average and trend definer, continues to point down and continues to act as resistance to price (both Monday and Tuesday).  The trend has continued down for the past 35 trading days.   Rallies back to the T8, as we saw on Monday and Tuesday, are opportunities to sell the market once again.  The steeper the decline of the T8, the further this market can fall.  We continue to doubt if the market can rally for any length of time above the T8. 

Tuesday’s candle is not significant, but notice the wick above the T8.  Markets move in opposite directions of wicks.    
Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Energy 11-28-07 (Wednesday):  A Daily Technical View of Solar and Alternative Energy Stocks for online and day traders.

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (ENER): Possible rally off of quad-tip bottom.

ENER rally Tuesday creating a piercing line candle on its chart.  The previous four days of trading marked four days of wick extensions below 25.15.  This action begs for higher prices.  Look for resistance in the 25.85 area.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

E-minis 11-28-07 (Wednesday):  A Daily Technical Analytical View of Eminis for online and day traders.

Emini S&P 500 (ESZ):  Volatility rules:  Eminis continue to rock and roll.

The ESZ closed up +19.75 and the S&P 500 closed up +21.01 points on Tuesday.  Price smacked the T8 and moved down after the contact on Monday and then couldn’t gather enough strength to touch it on Tuesday.      We always see retracements to the T8 as opportunities to buy or sell.  Wednesday should offer an opportunity to sell against the T8.  The StoRSI, our momentum oscillator, has swung positive again with the last six sessions changing directions of the indicator.  This is an uncommon supply and demand occurance.

The direction of the T8, our exponential moving average and trend definer, continues to point down and continues to act as resistance to price (most recently on Monday).  The trend has continued down for the past 29 trading days.   Rallies back to the T8, as we saw on Monday and Tuesday, are opportunities to sell the market once again.  The steeper the decline of the T8, the further this market can fall.  We continue to doubt if the market can rally for any length of time above the T8. 

Tuesday’s white candle is a “harami”.  The body of Tuesday’s candle is inside the body of Monday’s candle.  This supply and demand pattern can suggest a change in direction.  We have a classic battle of “trend vs. candle formation”…usually, trend wins.    

***Volatility Alert:
During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices.  For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility.  This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points in the DJIA (DOW), sometimes on a day-to-day basis.  Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time.  Expect continued volatility.  This volatility cycle is in its early stages and we continue to believe it is here to stay. (***9/15/07).

 Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.
 

Dow Directions 12-03-07 (Monday):  A Daily Technical Analytical View of Stocks, Furtures, Eminis and Forex for online and day traders.

DIA (Dow ETF):  Hanging man candle swings from the 50% retracement level.

The Dow closed up +59.99 points on Friday.   After the strong move on Wednesday and a little follow through on Thursday, the market continued up on Friday.  The StoRSI, our momentum oscillator, has finally crossed over its trigger level is currently at the top of its range near +100.  This is a extremely overbought condition and we could see the market fall back to it’s near support at the positive trending T8.     

The direction of the T8, our exponential moving average and trend definer, has turned up for the first time in five weeks.  This is a significant change in trend.  Retracements to the T8 should be considered for long positions.

Friday’s candle is a hanging man and usually stops markets from going higher.  Expect the market to retrace to the uptrending T8.  Hanging man candles are sure signs that the market is not going to continue in the same direction.   So, the good thing is that trend is now up and the bad thing is that we have become overbought while turning the trend up.  Be patient and let the market come back to the averages.    

***Volatility Alert:
During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices.  For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility.  This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points, sometimes on a day-to-day basis.  Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time.  Expect continued volatility.  This volatility cycle is in its early stages and we continue to believe it is here to stay.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.