Odds and Your System
Every trader wants to make money, that is why were are in the game. Even the very best traders realize they will have losing trades. Losing trades is part of the business and you need to get your head around this. If you are playing baseball, would you expect to get a hit everytime at bat, of course not. Very good hitters have a batting average in the 300’s. Just think what is considered very good in baseball, getting a hit 3 out of 10 at bats, 30% of the time, would be considered terrible in trading. But wait, could a 30% wining record be good in trading?
Well lets see, if you had a system that had a probability of 30% wins and 70% losers could it be a great system. This would be a hard sell to most people. But if you think in probabilities and odds it just might be a good system. Lets say your wins produced an average of $3000 for each win and a loss of $1,100 on each losing trade. Well this system over the long run would produce a gain of $130.00 for each trade, not bad. You see though, you would need the fortitude to emotionally lose most of the time and have losses of $1,100 each time. This would be difficult for the amateur trader. A trader with a $5,000 starting account could not even think of using this system since it may wipe the trader out before a profit. Even a $10,000 account would be too small in my opinion, the capital at risk would be too large.
This trader could experience 11 losses before a win also. Losing trades are part of the business. Teach Talk Trade can help you develop a system that fits your
style. Teach Talk Trade can show you the tools you need to be successful. TTT educates you, we teach you how to develop and test for yourself. There is no Holy Grail, no system that is 100% successful. After a long testing period, every trader should evaluate their statistics to find their edge. What percentage of trades are profitable? What is the average winning trade? What is the average losing trade?
What is the average profit per day? What is the equity curve? What are the potential drawdowns. Testing a trading system is a gradual and painstaking process. By paper trading, the trader can develop his/her skills and evaluate a trading system. The next step is trading minimum size positions and testing system results. You need to keep well within your risk tolerances at this stage so that you can learn the system, and control your emotions. Keeping a trading diary and tracking performance as the system develops can establish the system’s edge and odds of success. Keeping a journal is a MUST on Teach Talk
Trades list of successful things to do. By keeping a trading journal, the online trader can assess the trades and performance which will help you become a professional trader.Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Energy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.
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