Dow Directions Commodity Futures

Market Directions: Technical Analytical Views of Stocks, Futures, Eminis and Forex for Traders and Investors.

04-23-08 Yen Continues Upward March

As we have pointed out in the past, we love to buy issues that have openings below their moving average trend indicators.  As the maroon line, the T8, continued to move up in the Yen, Monday gave us an additional opportunity to purchase below this supporting indicator.  

 The T8 (maroon line), our moving average that defines trend, has been in a postive posture since last summer.  This weekly strategy has prompted us to buy on seven different Monday mornings.  This relaxed approach to the market can be applied to all major futures markets. 

***Volatility Alert:

During the third week in July, volatility returned to the major stock indices. For approximately four years, the markets have had low to very low volatility. This significant change has ushered in swings of 100, 200 & 300+ points, sometimes on a day-to-day basis. Stock indices tend to be either volatile, or not, for three to five years at a time. Expect continued volatility. The current volatility cycle has just started its volatile period. We feel this is the early stages of volatility and we continue to believe it is here to stay.

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T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 8: 30-Year Bond)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 8 features a chart of the continous 30-year Bond contract, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of 30-year Bond is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the third week of September at 110.375 and then again, the third week in December at 114.156.  At the time of this writing, the US 30-year Bond  was trading at 118.34. These two opportunities have turned out to be big winners since the first signal in September. The Bond is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next few weeks, we sill see over a dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 7: Gold)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 7 features a chart of the continous Gold contract, using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of Yen is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 08/04/07 @ 659.50 and 08/25/07 @ 667.00 and again on 12/08/07 @ 789.40.  At the time of this writing, Gold was trading at 910.50. These three opportunities have turned out to be big winners since the first signal in August. Gold is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 6: Ten-Year Note)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 6 features a chart of the Ten-Year Note using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend in the Ten-Year Note is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 10/13/07 @ 108 24/32 and 12/22/07 @ 112 4/32. At the time of this writing, The TYH (March Ten-Year Note) was trading at 116 10/32 (with a recent high of 119 3/32). These two opportunities are enjoying nice profits at the current level. The Ten-Year Note is not unique to this situation. Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.  You might want to read other blogs that discuss Crude Oil, Cocoa, the US Dollar, the Japaneses Yen and Coffee.  These previous postings show the same circumstances and the subsequent profits resulting based these simple rules.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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T8 Retracement Trading: A series on technical trading with moving averages in the futures markets. (Part 4)

For the next few weeks, we will examine opportunities in the futures markets that are dictated by price movement and an exponential moving average: the T8. In each example, we will be reviewing previous opportunities and speculating on how to become involved in the near future. All charts will be presented in the form of weekly candlesticks and will feature three moving averages and one momentum oscillator. As you will see, these simple tools can unlock the door to profits.

Part 4 features a chart of the Emini Japanese Yen (an electronic contract) using weekly time frames. We define “trend” as the direction of the T8. As we can see, the trend of Yen is definitely up. Our rules are simple. We only want to initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Therefore, rule #1: Initiate trades in the direction of the trend. Secondly, we want to buy weeks that open below the T8 when it is in an uptrend and sell weekly openings that are above the T8, providing the T8 is negative. Rule #2: Buy opening retracements to the moving average in the direction of the trend. That’s it. A simple approach to trading the futures markets.

Using this strategy, you could have bought the opening price during the following weeks at the prices stated: 10/13/07 @ .86100 and 12/22/075 @ .88480.  At the time of this writing, the Yen was trading at .93990. These two opportunities have turned out to be big winners in the last few weeks.  The Yen is not unique to this situation.  Currently, over fifteen commodity futures contracts have demostrated similar patterns.

During the next three weeks, we sill see over two dozen examples of the same trading set up. THIS IS NOT A MAGIC TRICK. These specific circumstances happen again and again. We will examine precious metals, interest rates, grains, currencies and other interesting commodity futures for exactly the same set up.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Market Predictions and Gold:

Today, I’m going to give you my predictions to the markets — a general guide you can use to determine the trends in all the major markets we cover.

My projections are based on current and past market signals and from a variety of indicators. I watch these indicators closely for a global market perspective.

Whether you’re attempting to merely protect yourself or aggressively grow your nest egg, one should have a global outlook as a roadmap.

In fact, with all that’s going on in the markets right now, I’d say it is crutial to see the big picture

Why? Because we’re going to see wild swings in virtually all markets … lots of fake-out moves … new trends emerge … and old trends become reinvigorated.

That’s all very understandable when you consider the forces that are gathering steam … that the ones I’ve have been watching for the last few years:

1)  The sinking dollar, which has much further to fall.
2) A crumbling empire of debt in the U.S. of which the subprime crisis is just the beginning.
3) Inflation that is about to explode during an election year, yes it is here folks. 

Despite all the hoopla, make no mistake: The U.S. is already in a recession. Housing and real estate is a mess. The financial sector has imploded. The auto manufacturers are still wallowing in a depression in their sector. And manufacturing in general in this country is now gone, for good.

Second, in  contrast to the U.S., Asian and emerging economies continue to surge. That’s true for China and India, as well as the rest of Southeast Asia and Latin America.

As a result, soaring prices for natural resources are now entering their next phase — a rapid acceleration that will take most investors by surprise, and turn out to be the most profitable up-move ever!   This surge will occur unless the worldwide economy goes into recession.
Gold: Short-term and long-term, gold’s bull market is very strong. But it’s going to experience some wild swings in 2008.

Major support is way down at the $850 level. If that level is broken on a closing basis at any time, gold could fall as low as $780.

On the upside, gold is in uncharted territory, record highs. The key points to watch are the $1,000 level, which should pose some psychological resistance, followed by $1,250.

Your general strategy toward gold should be: Buy weakness, and buy dips that hold the $850 level. Hold with the objective of seeing gold trade well over $1,250 later this year.  You may want to use retracements to our T8 model. Make sure you stay on top of all commodities by subscribing to our Morning Call in which we have analysis of 21 commodities.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Commodity Futures 12-19-07 (Wednesday): Occasional thoughts on various futures’ contracts.

LBH (March Lumber): “Lumbering Lower?”

The T8 is the moving average that we use to define trend. The T8 is currently pointing down and we consider the trend to be negative because of the direction of the T8. The opposite holds true for T8’s that are in a uptrends. With a positive trending T8, our preferred moving average, we are constantly monitoring for only long positions. In the case of a negative T8 (currently), we are constantly monitoring for short positions. 

The rules for this set-up are simple: a. take trades (buy/sell) in the direction of the trend b. buy openings below a positive sloping T8  c. sell openings above a negatively sloping T8  d.  intraday: buy or sell retracements to the T8 (in the direction of the trend).

This simple set of rules has triggered four trades, in March lumber, during the past three weeks of trading. On three occasions, the price has opened below a negative sloping T8 and during the session, price has rallied to touch the T8.  On one occasion, lumber has opened higher than the negatively pointed T8.   Simply stated: sell touches of a negatively pointed T8. or take any openings above or below a T8 (making sure that you always trade in the direction of the T8).   The first retracement is always the most important and offers the largest potential return.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

Commodity Futures 12-18-07 (Tuesday): Occasional thoughts on various futures’ contracts.

CCH (March Cocoa): “Price touches T8 and is supported again.”

The T8 is the moving average that we use to define trend. If the T8 is pointing up, we consider the trend to be positive. The opposite holds true for T8’s that are in a downtrends. With a positive trending T8, our preferred moving average, we are constantly monitoring for only long positions. The rules are simple: a. take trades (buys) in the direction of the trend (the T8, which is pointing up) b. buy openings below the T8. c. buy retracements to the T8 intraday.

This simple set of rules has triggered three trades during the past three trading sessions.  On each occasion, the price has opened lower than the positive postured T8 or has retraced to the T8.   This is an excellent approach to many types of trading. Simply stated: buy touches of a positive T8. The first retracement is always the most important and offers the largest potential return.

Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

The Future of Futures: 12-07-07 (Friday): A Daily Technical Analytical View of  Futures

OJH (March orange juice): Moving average squeeze provides upside juice!

Orange juice posted its best upward day since mid October.  This strong move has pegged our momentum oscillator, the CMO, to the top of its range.  We admit that the market is overbought here, but we will present strong reasons to buy retracements in the following paragraphs.

The direction of the T8, our exponential moving average and trend definer, continues to point up.  This positive turn arrived two weeks ago and has caused seven of the last eight days to have closing prices above their openings.  Rallies back to the T8 are opportunities to BUY orange juice. Remember, as the market starts to climb: the steeper the angle of the T8, the further this market can rally.  Thursday was a classic example of a market coming down to support (T8) for the first time after the moving average has turned up.

The red circle represents an area where the T3, T5, and T8 have consolidated or “squeezed” together.  We like to call this a “pocket rocket” or simply: compression.   When moving averages compress and form a pocket, many times there is swift movement to the upside (as we are witnessing in orange juice).

Chilly winds blow through the next three months.  Florida is no exception.  Long positions, due to the weather, are always something to consider in OJ, during this time of the year.

 Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.

 

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T8 Tactics 12-06-07 (Thursday): A periodic look at Tim Tillson’s T8 and how to apply it to the markets for fun and profit.

The T8 is the most useful tool I’ve stumbled across during the last ten years.  Since January of ‘98, when Tillson first published, the T8’s remain under the technical radar.  I’ve collected many helpful formulae during my 35 years in the business.  The T8 is the most fascinating indicator I’ve have encountered.   The T8 is an exponential moving average that defines trend in many of our mechanical trading approaches.  After many years of testing, the T8 shines in two areas:  a. as a trend identifier  b. as suport/resistance.  This is a vast improvement over the hundreds of moving averages I have analyzed over the years.  Two great features in one solid indicator.   

The direction of the T8 is obvious on the March Copper chart.  The T8 is the maroon line.  The T8 seldom waffles.  If the trend turns down, count on a extended run to the downside.  The T8 is sensitive  to important directional changes.  As you can see on the chart, copper and the T8 turned down in tandem.  The timely turn at the top of the Copper chart is typical of its interaction with price.  The larger red arrows, on the chart, are days when price opened above the T8.  The smaller red arrows are retracements to the T8 intraday.  All of these red arrows were strong selling opportunities.  Since the T8 has turned up in the last five days, until further notice, we will be only buying copper (HGH) on retracements to the T8 or openings below the T8.

 Please take advantage of the FREE 7 DAY TRIAL to The Morning Call ( we discuss 21 futures, ETF’s, E-minis, NASDAQ & Solar & Alternative Engergy issues ) & The Mechanical Monkey where we discuss our mechanical trades.